Balanced conditions continue in the Greater Vancouver housing market

 

Balanced conditions continue in the Greater Vancouver housing market

Home buyer and seller activity continues to mirror historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market. These trends have helped keep the region in a balanced state for the last nine months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,661 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2013. This is a 37.8 per cent increase compared to the 1,931 sales recorded in October 2012, and a 7.2 per cent increase from the 2,483 sales recorded in September 2013.

New listings for attached, detached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totaled 4,315 in October 2013. This represents a 0.2 per cent decline from the 4,323 new listings reported in October 2012, and a decrease of 14.2 per cent compared to the 5,030 new listings reported in September of this year.

Last month’s sales were 2.8 per cent above the 10-year sales average for the month, while new listings for the month were 1.9 per cent below the 10-year average.

“We continue to see fairly typical activity when it comes to monthly home sale and listing totals,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president said. “Today’s activity is helping to keep us in balanced market territory, which means that prices tend to experience minimal fluctuation.”

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver is 15,257, a decline of 12.2 per cent compared to this time last year, and a decline of 5.3 per cent compared to September 2013.

 

 

The sales-to-active-listings ratio is currently at 17.4 per cent in Greater Vancouver.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $600,700. This represents a 0.5 per cent decline compared to this time last year.

Sales of detached properties reached 1,067 in October 2013, an increase of 35.1 per cent from the 790 detached sales recorded in October 2012 and a 9.5 per cent increase from the 974 units sold in October 2011. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from October 2012 to $922,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,098 in October 2013, an increase of 36.7 per cent compared to the 803 apartment sales recorded in October 2012, and an increase of 14.6 per cent compared to the 958 sales in October 2011. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.9 per cent from October 2012 to $365,600.

Attached property sales totaled 496, an increase of 46.7 per cent compared to the 338 attached property sales recorded in 2012 and a 29.8 per cent increase compared to the 382 attached property sales recorded in October 2011. The benchmark price of an attached property is $458,000, which is virtually unchanged from October 2012.

Complete Report:    http://issuu.com/annaasi/docs/rebgv_stats_package__october_2013

 

Cat: REBGV Report October 2013

Job growth to sustain Vancouver housing market in 2014

Job growth to sustain Vancouver housing market in 2014

A pick up in B.C.’s economy next year and the associated increases in jobs will bolster B.C.’s residential real estate market in 2014.

According to the latest housing market outlook released October 31 by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), existing home sales are expected to rise 8% next year with the average price on the Multiple Listing Service forecast to edge up 1% in 2014.

In its report, the CMHC said demand for homes next year is “expected to ride the momentum of a rebounding market and post some positive gains.”

The improving market will be based on improved economic prospects for the province next year stemming from increased demand for B.C. goods from the province’s key export markets.

That is expected to bolster B.C.’s job market which is forecast to see a 1.5% increase in employment next year after marginal growth in 2013. After flat migration growth this year, an increase in the number of people migrating to B.C. should also boost demand for homes next year.

Housing starts, however, aren’t expected to rise substantially in 2014. The CMHC is forecasting 18,200 of new housing units this year and 18,400 units in 2014.

The relative glut of new, unoccupied homes is the main reason for the muted increase in activity over the next year. As of the end of September, there were 3,961 new housing units yet to be occupied, a 28% increase from the amount available a year ago.

Mortgage rates are expected to rise marginally next year, but CMHC suggested lending rates will remain “supportive” for the housing market given rates remain low by historical standards.

By the end of 2014, CMHC is forecasting the one-year posted mortgage rate to rise 0.25% from 2013 levels to between 3.25% and 3.75%, and the five-year posted mortgage rate to rise to between 5.25% to 6% from between 5% and 5.50% in 2013.

Courtesy of Business Vancouver

Vancouver’s house prices still climbing

Vancouver’s house prices still climbing

Prices for single-family houses in Vancouver are on the rise again as the affordability gap widens between detached homes and multifamily units.

On Vancouver’s West Side neighbourhood, the benchmark price index last month for detached homes reached $2,086,800, up 1.2 per cent from October, 2012. On the city’s East Side, prices rose 1 per cent to $850,500.

Over the past five years, prices for West Side detached properties have surged 45.3 per cent while they have jumped 35.2 per cent on the East Side, according to statistics released Monday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

For Greater Vancouver as a whole, including suburbs such as Burnaby and Richmond, single-family detached prices climbed 24.4 per cent to $922,600 over the past five years. By contrast, prices for townhouses rose 7.8 per cent to $458,000 while condo prices increased 4.5 per cent to $365,600.

The Vancouver region’s single-family detached homes are on track to get ever-more expensive in the long term, while price hikes for townhouses and condos are forecast to be restrained by increased supply for those multifamily developments, said Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association.

“In the long term, single-family detached homes are going to become an increasingly smaller proportion of the housing stock becau se we’re building 80 per cent of new homes that are townhouses or condominiums,” Mr. Muir said.

“Over time, the housing stock will be shifting toward multifamily. Single-family detached homes are going to be a smaller proportion of the total number of homes in the marketplace. As such, theory tells us that prices of those particular home types are going to get bid up relative to the other ones because they are an increasingly finite and scarce resource,” he said.

October sales for detached homes, townhouses and condos in Greater Vancouver climbed 37.8 per cent from the same month last year as the real estate market finds its balance. There were 2,661 resale properties that changed hands last month on the Multiple Listing Service, up from 1,931 sales in October, 2012.

The increased activity marks the sixth consecutive month that Greater Vancouver has experienced a year-over-year gain in monthly sales, following a 19-month slump in volume.

Hani Lamman, vice-president of development and acquisitions with Cressey Development Group, said the City of Vancouver is facing opposition from long-time residents in historic neighbourhoods as civic politicians seek to encourage builders to pack more housing units onto lots traditionally zoned single-family detached.

Land is precious within the City of Vancouver due to mountains to the north and the ocean to the west, Mr. Lamman said. While it will be a slow process, Cressey intends to build townhouses and condos in the East Side neighbourhood that includes Commercial Drive, assuming city hall officials are able to rezone the area to make it easier to construct townhouses, row houses and condos.

Housing sales over the past six months look rosy when comparing the figures with last year’s slump. In July, 2012, Ottawa reduced the maximum period on government-backed mortgages to 25 years from 30 years, a move that contributed to the slowdown in housing sales and drop in prices in the second half of 2012 and early 2013. On Vancouver’s West Side in March this year, for instance, single-family detached prices were down 9.1 per cent, compared with the same month in 2012.

The sales volume in Greater Vancouver last month was 2.8 per cent above the 10-year sales average for October, said board president Sandra Wyant. Greater Vancouver’s MLS home price index for single-family detached houses, townhouses and condos was $600,700 last month, or a 0.5-per-cent decline from the same period in 2012. There were a total of 15,257 active listings last month, down 12.2 per cent from a year earlier.

VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Nov. 04 2013

New home construction could be a ‘real grind’ for Metro Vancouver in 2014

New home construction could be a ‘real grind’ for Metro Vancouver in 2014

 

The new home industry can expect 2014 to be a “real grind” as impending municipal elections in Metro Vancouver could slow down the rate of approval for new housing projects, Vancouver real estate guru Michael Ferreira said Thursday.

  Ferreira warned a meeting of the Urban Development Institute to expect “to see more of this,” and he showed a slide of a protest signs that can be seen around Marpole in South Vancouver saying “Stop Marpole Rezoning.”

  The signs are protesting the city’s proposed housing densification of the Marpole neighbourhood.

“In terms of supply of new homes, I think we will continue to see it constrained — especially over the next year. One of the biggest reasons is the municipal elections coming up in 2014.

  “I think those on council and those people seeking re-election will be loathe to make any kind of controversial decision (on new housing),” said Ferreira, who is a principal of the Vancouver company Urban Analytics.

“So it really freezes our market and, for those politicians who wax on about wanting to provide affordable product, it doesn’t help if we go a year without adding more supply,” Ferreira said.

  “As an industry I think we are going to have to work a lot harder to show people in neighbourhoods that we are working with them,” he said.

In his overall assessment of the new housing market this year, Ferreira said it has been a lot like the weather.

  “It’s been a bit hard to figure out — a bit tough to see through the fog in some places — but certainly some bright spots,” he said.

As an example, he pointed to concrete condominium sales levels, which were higher than he had expected.

  Ferreira said 4,253 units had been sold in Metro so far this year, compared to 2,546 to the same date in 2012. Bright spots included Richmond, with 878 concrete condos sold this year, and the Tri-cities (Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody), with nearly 500 concrete condos sold to date, a 74-per-cent increase over last year.

  However, Metro’s wood-frame condominium sales were “not quite as good,” with 1,832 sold so far in 2013, compared to 2,502 to the same date in 2012. Townhomes showed a similar trend.

 

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Vancouver home sales rebound with 64-per-cent upturn

Vancouver home sales rebound with 64-per-cent upturn

 

Housing sales surged 63.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver last month as the area’s real estate market regains its footing.

There were 2,483 homes sold on the Multiple Listing Service in September, up from 1,516 sales in the same month last year, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Wednesday. “There is a lot more confidence in the Vancouver market now,” board president-elect Ray Harris said in an interview.

The increased activity marks the fifth consecutive month that Greater Vancouver has experienced a year-over-year gain in monthly sales, following a 19-month slump in volume.

Greater Vancouver’s benchmark index price for single-family detached homes, condos and townhouses fell 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $601,900 last month, but has increased 2.3 per cent since January.

In Vancouver’s closely watched west side, the index price for single-family detached sales last month was $2,089,700, up $1,000 from September, 2012. While that is an increase of only 0.05 per cent, it marks an improvement from January, when the West Side’s detached index price dropped 7.5 per cent year-over-year.

A balanced market has emerged, with buyers in a calm state of mind instead rushing to do deals, Mr. Harris said. On the selling side, baby boomers thinking of downsizing by listing their detached homes aren’t hurrying to move since prices are expected to be relatively healthy, he said.

The total number of active listings on the MLS was 16,115 last month in Canada’s most expensive housing market, down 12.2 per cent from a year earlier.

Mr. Harris said Greater Vancouver’s resale housing prices could increase roughly 3 per cent over the next 18 months to two years – a stable outlook that should contribute to sales volume staying near historical averages. Last month’s sales were 1 per cent below the 10-year average of 2,509 for September.

The sales-to-active-listings ratio was 15.4 per cent in Greater Vancouver last month. B.C. real estate agents consider it a balanced market when the ratio ranges from 15 to 20 per cent.

Vancouver’s West Side has seen its index price for single-family detached homes jump 40 per cent over the past five years, but suburbs such as Port Coquitlam haven’t undergone such volatility, Mr. Harris added. Port Coquitlam’s detached property index price is up 6.3 per cent over the past five years.

As well, the region’s condo market hasn’t experienced huge price gains. Greater Vancouver’s condo prices have risen 1.9 per cent since 2008. Sales jumped 32 per cent last month in the Fraser Valley, which includes the sprawling and less-expensive Vancouver suburb of Surrey.

There were 1,131 properties that changed hands on the MLS, up 32 per cent from 857 sales in September, 2012. Last month’s benchmark index price in the Fraser Valley slipped 0.2 per cent year-over-year to $428,400.

Fraser Valley Real Estate Board president Ron Todson said he sees signs of first-time buyers returning to the market, though it has become more expensive to obtain financing due to the recent rise in mortgage rates. The residential property market is gradually recovering from Ottawa’s tightening of mortgage rules in 2012, he said.

In July, 2012, Ottawa reduced the maximum period on government-backed mortgages to 25 years from 30 years. Real estate experts say the change, which knocked some first-time buyers out of the market, contributed to the slowdown in housing sales a year ago.

Courtesy of The Globe and Mail

Cat: Vancouver Real Estate

Sears applies to build seven towers at its Metrotown site

Sears applies to build seven towers at its Metrotown site

Sears Canada has applied to the City of Burnaby for a rezoning of its Metrotown store site to allow a total development that would include up to seven highrise towers and be worth up to $1 billion.

The company is going through a transformation and one of its strategies is to look at ways to create value through the assets it owns, said Sears president and chief executive officer Calvin McDonald.

“The nine acres at Metrotown are a great opportunity for us to share in a development project that will create significant value and bring a brand-new store to the community,” McDonald said. “It’s a great opportunity for us to create something exciting on a piece of land we own for our community, our business and our transformation.”

Sears first opened in Burnaby in 1954 on the site at 4750 Kingsway, which Sears and Toys R Us occupy in what is now Metropolis at Metrotown. The rest of the property is taken by a parking lot, loading facilities and a public plaza at Kingsway and Nelson, the documents filed with the City of Burnaby show. Across Central Boulevard is the Metrotown SkyTrain station.

The new development would include two office towers and five residential towers of undetermined height, all of which would be above commercial retail space on the ground floor, the documents show. A new public plaza is also part of the plans.

“We think this is a great location,” McDonald said. “It’s preliminary, but we went to the city and we’re going to continue to work with stakeholders and a great developer. It’s in the early stages, but we’re excited.”

Burnaby has agreed to work with Sears in creating a plan to develop the property and Sears is close to choosing a developer to work with, McDonald said.

The project could be worth $1 billion or more, given today’s real estate prices and the potential density of the site, Stephen Champion, vice-president, real estate at Sears Canada, said in an email.

“However the final value will be a function of what makes sense from a city planning perspective and from an economic perspective,” Champion said.

There are a lot of residential towers planned for Burnaby, said Michael Ferreira, principal at Urban Analytics, a company that provides analytical interpretation of real estate market data.

“There’s an absolutely tremendous number of towers being planned in a number of different areas of Burnaby,” Ferreira said, adding that as long as the condominiums don’t all flood the market at once, the number should be sustainable.

“Everybody has to go forward with modest expectations of absorption, given the amount of product that’s going to be competing against each other.”

Ferreira said that similar deals have already been done in other areas of the city and there is potential for many more.

“As the cities have matured and evolved, some of these retailers are looking at different ways to get value out of their property,” Ferreira said. “If you look at the location of some of these stores — look at Safeway on Fourth Avenue or West Tenth — who wouldn’t want to put a tower there?”

This is the first project of this type that Sears has considered, but the company is exploring the possibility of similar deals elsewhere, said Sears spokesman Vincent Power. The so-called “transformation” program is also looking at improving the core retail operations and finding efficiencies in operations, Power said.

Sears Canada Inc. posted a $31.2-million loss as well as lower revenue in its latest quarter but says its transformation program is showing results. The department store retailer says same-store sales fell by 2.6 per cent while total revenue for the 13 weeks ended May 4 was $867.1 million.

Sears returned its lease last year on the Pacific Centre store it had occupied for more than a decade since Eaton’s departure, along with two other locations in Calgary and Ottawa, for $170 million to Cadillac Fairview. Iconic U.S. retailer Nordstrom will open in the former Sears building downtown in 2015. McDonald took over as Sears president and CEO in 2011, Power said.

 

Technorati Tags: Vancouver Real Estate Vancouver Housing

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Donald Trump's Vancouver visit next week confirms speculation about tower

Donald Trump's Vancouver visit next week confirms speculation about tower

 

VANCOUVER -- Donald Trump is coming to Vancouver next week, confirming speculation that the Holborn Group will be bringing a Trump International tower to the city.

The Holborn Group wouldn’t elaborate on the announcement, saying only that the iconic Manhattan developer is bringing his family — including son Donald and daughter Ivanka — to a news conference Wednesday to announce details of what is described as “one of Vancouver’s most iconic buildings.”

But branding expert Steven Kates isn’t convinced Vancouverites have an appetite for Trump and everything he represents.

Kates, a professor at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, said the man seen by some as “the public face of capitalism” may have soured many Canadians on his brand.

“On the one hand he is quite a divisive figure, especially with his antics during the presidential campaign of last year questioning whether President Obama was in fact born in the U.S. — that borders on ‘crazy town,’” said Kates. “Canadians don’t go for that, they think it’s absurd.

“On the other hand, there may be a small target segment of consumers who just don’t care about that and believe the Trump brand is associated with top luxury and opulence.”

Thursday’s announcement follows media reports earlier this year that a deal was close for a Trump Tower on the site of the cancelled Ritz-Carlton hotel-condo project, which was designed by Arthur Erickson as a twisting 60-storey tower that would have been Vancouver’s second tallest building.

The Ritz-Carlton project, on Georgia between Bute and Thurlow, was cancelled in 2009 because “worldwide economic turmoil” affected the sale of units in the project, a letter from Holborn’s lawyers stated at the time.

At the time of the 2009 cancellation, Holborn had sold about 62 of the 123 condos in the tower, where prices ranged from $1.4 million to $28 million. A 127-room luxury Ritz-Carlton hotel was supposed to occupy the first 20 floors of the building, with condos taking up the top 40 floors. Construction was halted at the site in 2008.

Real estate marketing and consulting groups said Thursday they believe there is room for another luxury condo highrise in Vancouver, although price points will be very important.

Although Holborn wouldn’t comment on their plans, Jon Bennest, principle of Vancouver-based real estate and urban planning consulting company Urban Analytics, said there’s widespread belief that the units in a redesigned building bearing the Trump brand would be slightly smaller and possibly slightly less extravagant than what was originally planned for the Ritz-Carlton project.

There are several other hotel-condo projects in Vancouver, including the Shangri-La, which was completed in 2009 and is Vancouver’s tallest building at 62 storeys.

“I think there’s a potential demand for (luxury condos),” said Bennest. “A lot of people on the west side of Vancouver who want to stay in the area want to sell their single family home and have some money left over.

“The idea is that the product would be luxurious, but at a lower overall price point so they could attract a larger pool of buyers. That is anecdotally what we’ve heard is the direction of the building. And their intention is to make the units slightly smaller than the previous offering.”

Scott Brown, senior vice-president, Colliers International’s project marketing group, said that although he’s never sold a Trump building, he’s sold several other top brands including Four Seasons Hotels, Raffles Singapore, Westin Hotels and Resorts, and Hard Rock Hotels.

“Generally, a market associated with these brands do bring a premium,” said Brown. “However, since 2008, the premium those brands could fetch has not been as high. They (Holborn) should get some premium, it’s a question as to how much.”

“It will be interesting what the Asian response is to the Trump brand.”

Holborn Group bought the West Georgia property from Cadillac Fairview about eight years ago and demolished a partly built concrete structure that had sat derelict for years, after failed attempts to build a private members’ club and a strata-title office building.

In February, Amanda Miller, Trump’s vice-president of marketing, said members from the Trump Hotel Collection development team had recently visited Vancouver looking at various opportunities in the market. “It is a great city with tremendous access to the Asian market and we look forward to continuing to explore the potential of bringing the Trump flag to this location.”

Holborn president and CEO Joo Kim Tiah said Thursday in an emailed response to a request for an interview: “We look forward to sharing more details with you next week.”

Roxanne Reid, president of Hestia Marketing Group Inc. in Vancouver, was senior vice-president of marketing for S & P Destination Properties when she oversaw the marketing of the Trump International Waikiki Hotel project in Hawaii in 2006, which she said had a one-day sellout of $700 million.

She said the Trump brand brings an international appeal. “The Trump brand is synonymous with high service and quality. It’s pure luxury, although not ostentatious. It’s a more refined luxury.”

She also noted that Ivanka Trump has taken a real lead in the brand “and has a good following on an international basis.”

Kevin McNaney, assistant director, central area planning for the city of Vancouver, said Thursday that the city has had a development permit in place on the site since November 2011 for a 64-storey hotel/residential tower. “The building is under construction,” he added, in an emailed statement. “The only thing not known is the hotel brand.”

Talon International, the Toronto developer of the Trump tower in that city, is facing a multimillion-dollar lawsuit from a group of investors, who allege that they were targeted by “an investment scheme and conspiracy based upon reckless and negligent misrepresentations” of the luxury hotel’s financial prospects, the National Post reported in 2012.

Talon directors maintained that they delivered what they promised in the five-star hotel, which rises 65 storeys at the corner of Bay and Adelaide streets.

In their 54-page lawsuit, which also names Donald Trump as a defendant, the four plaintiffs seek to recoup hundreds of thousands of dollars in deposits, along with more than $2.5 million apiece in general damages for “loss of opportunity and consequential damages, negligent misrepresentation and conspiracy.”

The statement of claim says the plaintiffs had limited or no experience investing in real-estate when they opted to purchase hotel units in the Trump tower, which is divided at the 32nd floor between residential and hotel space.

 

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